Remittance growth to slow as migration trends shift – ANZ economists

As the number of Fijians leaving the country to work in Australia and New Zealand is gradually slowing down, remittances is expected to stagnate by 2024-2025.

This has been highlighted in a research on remittances by ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen and Senior International Economist Tom Kenny who say since 2022, and especially in 2023 and 2024, Fiji’s overseas migration numbers have jumped sharply, driven by temporary migrants (taking long term temporary employment or studying) in Australia and New Zealand.

They say correspondingly, remittances have risen, with total private flows up by 15.4 percent to $871 million in the year to June 2022, before surging to $1.095 billion in 2023 (up 25.8 percent) and to $1.231 billion in 2024 (up 12.3 percent).

Sen and Kenny believe remittances will grow further in 2024-2025, but that will be about as good as it gets for a while.

They say the number of students moving from Fiji to Australia declined sharply in 2023 and 2024, while new PALM arrivals have also dropped off significantly.

They say this trend, together with students returning after completing courses, is likely to result in net overseas migration adding to Fiji’s population from the second half of 2025.

Sen and Kenny say that on a cumulative basis, Fiji’s population loss due to overseas migration will fall from 2025 and 2026, limiting the upside to remittances growth.

They say however, that will be more of a sideways story than a downtrend.

The economists add PALM scheme numbers in Australia could stabilise at current levels as workers can stay for up to four years and if the number of new PALM arrivals picks up significantly, remittances may move higher.