New beginnings!

Apologies for the extended break from YB but we are back, reinvigorated for 2025.

We have been reminiscing around the Yellow Bucket about the good old days when Fijians were able to take a break from national “drama” over the festive season. Yes, there was a time when journalists and politicians went on holiday over Christmas and New Year, but those days seem long gone. It began YB believes with timing of the 2006 “coup” or whatever you choose to call it and seems to have now become a habit. During the Bainimarama era it seemed that Christmas was a time to drop “bomb shells”, when diplomats were expelled and the like. The climax of course was the extraordinary decision to hold an election mid December 2022 culminating in a change of Government on Christmas Eve. We had thought those days were gone but yet again DRAMA dominate the festive season.

Some quick comments on the DRAMA.

First, compliments to DPM Bill Gavoka and the Tourism leaders in the handling of the pina colada and Virgin Australia flight crew events. Timing in the international news cycle is everything and both hit at the worst possible time when the rest of the world was quiet, and journalists worldwide were hunting for stories to fill their bulletins. It didn’t help that it followed a similar sounding tragedy in Laos. There is no point complaining, the link was inevitably made especially when the words “spiked drinks” were used in early announcements BUT, and you never get it entirely right, Fiji responded quicky and strongly to these stories minimising potential damage.

The colourful private life of Lynda Tabuya struck once again, and it has cost her a cabinet post. No surprises and we can debate fairness etc but when you choose to take a anti porn position and then you star in a salacious video, the consequences are inevitable. Especially as it was a second strike. That said PA needs to think carefully about expulsion…. YB understands there is debate as to whether this is possible under their party constitution. Lynda is a proven vote getter in an electoral system that rewards “brand” and name recognition. Oh …...and she is also wealthy and extremely ambitious. It would be wise to keep her in “the tent” for the moment. She will be back!!

The next bombshell dropped early in the new year, the clearing of Christopher Pryde who has been under lengthy suspension as Director of Public Prosecutions. Neutral observers have said from the beginning that the grounds for his suspension were weak and circumstantial. Pryde is a controversial character. His leading role in the prosecution of various critics of the previous regime is difficult to forget. It is clear the current “acting” DPP intends to fight supported by many in Government legal circles, remind you of another recent appointment? If there is a lesson to be learnt it must be if you are going to seek prosecution make sure it is going to stick AND do it by the “book”. The current actions look like harassment reminiscent, ironically, of the way in which the previous Government, assisted by Pryde, behaved. On the other hand, you must wonder why Pryde seems so determined to cling to the position and doesn’t just take his payout and run.

THE DANGER is that voters are getting fed up with all this DRAMA and it is proving a dangerous distraction to getting the job done in other critical areas as will be discussed shortly.

Now to the future, any discussion must focus on the fact that we are effectively 18 months away from general elections. Note, we are assuming we will not have a Christmas election again, our bet October, taking into an election campaign that will start with the Budget in June 2026.

The Coalition Government need to be reminded that voters will decide based on issues that directly affect them NOT issues like changing the constitution. Our prediction is that focus will be on five key areas.

Cost of living… this is a tough one for incumbent politicians all over the world. The truth is there is not a lot they can do about it but that does not stop unscrupulous politicians claiming they have a magical answer, voters can only live in hope so are always susceptible to persuasion. Look no further than the USA for the most recent example!

Infrastructure…. The main one here is water. Fiji faces massive issues and while the supply to the Suva – Nausori corridor seems to have improved with the Viria Water Treatment Plant coming online, there are still problems along the Tamavua ridge and Lami. Meanwhile, Nadi struggles to keep up with the pressure of growing tourism. All these areas are major population centres so are electoral threats.

Law and Order…. The drugs issue is just the beginning of the problem. There are issues with the rule of law from top to bottom, the judiciary, Director of Prosecutions, the Police etc etc. Voters need to feel safe.

Health…. Where do we begin…. there needs to be visible improvements to health infrastructure starting with the CWM.

Education…. Any Fiji parent is fully aware of the problems in this area starting with the level of absenteeism amongst teachers and the general very clear declining standards in our schools.

There are plenty of other gripes but in YB’s mind the next election will centre on these five, as we have said many times voters will decide based on, what they believe has happened in these critical areas, so messaging is critical. This is important and right now voters’ confidence in the Coalition Government has been shaken by a perception that things are out of control.

So…. How has the reshuffle helped to deliver on the above. The key challenge for the first 18 months of this Government was stability. Wrestling with the volatile mix that is SODELPA cost time, and it forced appointments that did not help delivery. The collapse of FijiFirst and the next split in opposition ranks helped correct this and the new appointments cement the “gang of nine” into the coalition. We assume they will eventually be absorbed into the People’s Alliance.

While the extraordinary size of cabinet is leaving many sceptical, perhaps this is needed considering the inexperience of the Civil Service??

Some have suggested that the move has disrupted the Coalition that might be the case with SODELPA, when are they not restless, but YB hasn’t picked this up in discussions with NFP leadership. In the end Sashi Kiran has been promoted, no surprise as we understand she has earned the respect of the PM and Pio Tikoduadua effectively demoted. YB is a fan of Tikoduadua seeing him as one of the more competent Ministers who has been frustrated particularly by delays in the appointment of a Police Commissioner BUT both he and the PM recognise that the Ministry of Home Affairs covering Defence, Police and Immigration faces major challenges.

The Prime Minster’s move to break this up recognises that Law and Order is a critical and now complex issue. The appointment of Ioane Naivalurua, who has experience and proven competence, to work with a newly appointed Police Commissioner will hopefully lead to rapid change and results. The announcement that a former New Zealand Police Commissioner will be seconded as a mentor is something Tikoduadua has been working on for some time and makes a lot of sense.

Immigration continues to be a nightmare. Many of these issues were inherited and while there have been some improvement, headaches remain. Viliame Naupoto has experience in this area and being able to focus solely on this area will hopefully deliver quick outcomes.

Then there is the Military. Now that the review is complete there is still the work of reshaping the RFMF into an organisation that delivers real returns to Fijian taxpayers rather than being a source of disruption and fear. This is Mr Tikoduadua’s sole responsibility and we expect him to work closely and quickly with the Military Commander in this vital area.

So, there is some logic to the above keeping in mind the critical areas we discussed above. We will be interested in how the Public Service Commission responds to these changes in terms of the bureaucratic structure around these new Ministries.

This brings us to the political landscape and potential threats to the incumbent Government. We need to remember that the voting system requires rivals to find leaders who have strong name recognition. The challenge is that since 2016, politics has been dominated by three figures Bainimarama, Sayed-Khaiyum and Rabuka. There has been little space for anyone else to emerge. None of the individuals who have stuck their hand up so far look like changing that and we will discuss these “bids” in future.

The Prime Minister’s lengthy conversation with Vijay Narayan on Straight Talk reinforced his determination to lead the People’s Alliance into the next election and beyond. He clearly intends to lead from the front, having freed himself from some of his ministerial duties. YB has mixed feelings on this. As we have said he is effectively the last man standing in terms of dominant political figures, but he will be 78 at the time of the next election. While he remains physically very fit, as Joe Biden has just proved, age can catch up fast. He has always been a great communicator BUT struggles to stay on topic, a habit that has got worse with age. In a time when voters increasingly want clear “short” messages, this leaves him vulnerable. The question is will a younger more vigorous alternative emerge in the next 18 months?

Much to discuss in the coming weeks!